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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. While competent, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.